Scat Daddybaby nice overlay, Polish Dollar figures to cash

Congratulations to those who correctly picked Scat Daddybaby (Scat) to win Easter Sunday’s featured 6f Allowance race for older horses at Emerald Downs (EmD).  On a card where the favorite won 6 of the 9 races, Scat Daddybaby was a huge overlay at odds of 8.70, leaving many seasoned handicappers wondering how they managed to overlook this horse.  Scat: 1) was the obvious pace of the race (none of the other horses could match the 21.4 first quarter speed Scat possesses), 2) had the second fastest last race Beyer figure in the 11 horse field, 3) its last three races were the fastest Beyer figures of its life, 4) its last four workouts had been superb (three bullet works and the other 3/32), 5) was running at a track, distance & surface it has been  successful at, 6) was running for trainer Robbie Baze who has been winning at a 36% clip with horses who have won their last start, & 7) was being ridden by Gayln Mitchell, who for years has been one of the best jockeys at EmD in breaking horses from the gate & rating horses with front end speed.

Polish Dollar looks like the horse to beat in tomorrow’s (4/26) feature race at EmD, a Clm 32000 (32-25) 6f sprint for older horses.  Its last 7 Beyer figures (81-90) tower over 5 of its 6 competitors, its last 5 works have been very good, & even though it hasn’t raced since last September, its trainer has had good success bringing horses back from long layoffs, winning with this horse in a similar 6f spot last year with an 87 Beyer, in a time (1:08) that figures to win here.  My chief concern is with the jockey, who has only 1 win in 15 tries this year.

The main competition appears to be Why Not Be Perfect who is running at a level lower than for which it was claimed (40-35) in 2012, 11 races ago.  Even though it hasn’t won a race in the 6 races it has run since April 2013, it has flashed Beyers in the mid-to upper 80’s & all six were stakes races.  All of the races were at longer distances, however, & it has shown a proclivity for missing the top prize, winning only 8 of 49 races (16.3%) lifetime.  Its last 2 Beyer figures were just 76 & 80 respectively.  Still, this is a significant class drop & the horse runs for trainer Jeff Metz, who has been red hot at this meet.

Good luck at the races!

– Ron Classen, mytadog@comcast.net

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